A-Level经济| Economics Exam Context for 2018

2018经济考试背景信息了解一下吗？最近经济类的热门话题有哪些好奇吗？A-level经济考前范围想看吗？

恭喜大家，今天将打包送上！帮你考前复习一波近期的经济热点，有多重要我就不多说了！

适合水平：AS, A Level, IB

适合考试局：AQA, Edexcel, OCR, IB, Eduqas, WJEC

Economic Wellbeing（经济状况）A selection of wellbeing indicators for the UK in 2016 and 2017 are summarised below (Source: ONS)

Healthy life expectancy: Males 63.1 years, Females: 63.7 years

proportion of people aged 16 and over in England who reported feelings of loneliness often or always was 5.4% in the year ending March 2017.

16% of UK households living with less than 60% of median income before housing costs

Median wealth per household, including pension wealth was ￡259,400 in 2016

Real median household income was ￡27,310 in the UK in the year ending March 2017

In 2017, 8.0% of UK residents had no qualifications

8.9% of energy consumption came from renewable sources in 2016. (up from 4.3% in 2011)

Household recycling rate for UK in 2016 was 44.6%

Update on the Global Economy in 2017 (Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, March 2018)2017全球经济变化情况（数据来源：IMF世界经济展望报告，2018年3月）World economy grew 3.8% in 2017 – this is the fastest rate since 2011

Advanced countries grew 2.3% on average

Emerging and Developing nations grew 4.9%

China 6.9%, India 6.7%

Sub Saharan Africa 2.8%

Global trade in goods  services rose 4.9%

Commodity prices climbed 17%, including crude prices jumping to $65 per barrel

IMF believes that support for globalisation is weakening - NAFTA being challenged, Brexit, rise in non-tariff barriers + looming trade war between the US and China

IMF estimate - a 10 percent increase in import prices everywhere from tariffs  quotas —lowers global output and consumption by about 2 per cent after 5 years

Brexit and EU/UK Trade（脱欧与欧盟/英国贸易）Importance of trade with the EU:

44% of all UK exports were sold to the EU

53% of all UK imports came from the EU

Trade balance:

UK ran a trade deficit with the EU in 2017 of ￡72 billion

Regional importance of trade with the EU

60% of Welsh exports go to the EU

59% of North East exports go to the EU

Average EU import tariffs (%) – relevant if a trade deal cannot be reached

Dairy products 35%

Cereals 13%

Sugar and confectionery 24%

Clothing 11%

Overseas aid from the UK（英国海外援助）In each year since 2013, UK overseas aid spending has been 0.7% of GNI

In 2016, the UK spent ￡13.4 billion on overseas aid

Five biggest recipients of bilateral aid are Pakistan, Syria, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Afghanistan. Aid to India has fallen sharply.

Spending on humanitarian aid and supporting refugees has risen

Spending on cancelling debt is now zero

Most UK aid is project aid

Building antimicrobial resistance

Sanitation and hygiene research

Forest governance to help reduce the impact of deforestation

Unemployment in the UK Labour Market（英国劳动力市场失业情况）Unemployment continues to fall reaching 4.2% of the labour force in Feb 2018, 1.4 million people

Youth unemployment has declined from 20% in 2012 to 12% in 2018 (520K people aged 16-24)

The number of unemployed 16-24 year olds fell by 43% between 2010 and 2018.

Unemployment currently at lowest rate since 1975

Long-term jobless rate also declining to 1.1% of labour force (less than 25% of total jobless)

Estimated NAIRU has dropped to 4.5% of labour force – has the Phillips Curve flattened?

However … dig underneath the aggregate data:

Continued high levels of economic inactivity

Under-employment remains a major factor - where workers stay in part-time, temporary or zero-hours contract roles because they cannot access full-time jobs - Under-employment estimated to be above Unemployment

Declining median real wages and also many people who have a job experience in-work poverty and continue to rely on benefits

Youth Unemployment（年轻人失业情况）In the UK:

Unemployment for 16-24 year olds in UK is 12%, down from 20% in 2010

The number of unemployed 16-24 year olds fell by 43% between 2010 and 2018.

This is 525,000 young people

72,000 of young people have been unemployed for over a year

EU youth unemployment rates:

Greece 44%

Spain 37%

Italy 34%

UK 12%

Germany 6%

EU average is 16%

Relative poverty in the UK（英国相对贫困情况）Relative poverty line for UK – households with income  60% of median income in that year

2017 – 10.4 million people in relative low income before housing costs

That figure rises to 14.3 million after housing costs (22% of the population)

2.7 million children live in relatively poor households, 4.1 million after housing costs

This is 30% of all children

Highest relative poverty is in London (28% of individuals)

The Minimum Wage（最低工资标准）National Living Wage (NLW) replaced the adult minimum wage in 2016

Current rates from April 2018:

Aged 25 and over ￡7.83 per hour

Aged 21-24 years ￡7.38 per hour

Aged 18-20 years ￡5.90 per hour

Under 18 years ￡4.20 per hour

Apprentice rate ￡3.70 per hour

Key points on the NLW:

NLW is not tied to changes in inflation

Living Wage is voluntary currently ￡10.20 per hour in London and ￡8.75 per hour elsewhere (employers can choose to pay)

Government target is that NLW must reach 60% of median earnings by 2020. It is currently at 57% of median earnings.

Sub prime credit  household debt（次级信贷与家庭债务）The UK Financial Conduct Authority is now responsible for monitoring high cost credit companies including pay-day lenders

2015 - price cap imposed on pay-day loans.

Interest capped at 0.8% per day

Default fees on a loan fixed at ￡15

Total cost cap of 100% of loan value in default fees and interest

Only two “roll-overs” allowed on each loan

Results of greater regulation of the sub prime credit market in the UK:

Market for loans has got a lot smaller

Many lenders have left the market – sub-normal profits cause firms to exit

Loan sizes remain similar, longer repayment

Default rates have halved

Signs of shift to credit unions but some groups of consumers no longer have access to credit

Inflation（通货膨胀）CPI inflation was 2.5% in March 2018

UK inflation was 2.7% in 2017, peaking at 3.0% in January 2018

Contrasting inflation rates in 2017 (Source: IMF)

Germany 1.5%

Cyprus -0.4% (deflation)

Emerging market  developing nations 4.5%

Venezuela 8,500% (March 2018)

Argentina 25% (April 2018)

India 4.5%

Central banks have different inflation targets

Argentina: 15%

India: 4% (+ or – 2%)

Kenya: 5% (+ or – 2.5%)

UK: 2%, Euro Zone: 2%, Japan: 2%

Zambia: 9%

UK Current Account (BoP)UK ran a record deficit of 5.6% of GDP in 2016. In 2017, the deficit came down to 4.1% = ￡82.9 billion

UK trade deficit in goods: ￡136 billion

UK trade surplus in services ￡107 billion

UK trade balance in goods  services -￡29bn

Current account deficit was amplified by a deficit in primary income (investment income) and secondary income (transfers)

Trade imbalances in the global economy (2017)

Current account surpluses:

Germany 8.2% of GDP

Singapore 19.6% of GDP

South Korea 5.5% of GDP

Taiwan 13.6% of GDP

Current account deficits:

UK: 4.1% of GDP

United States 3.0% of GDP

Rwanda 9.6% of GDP

Ethiopia 6.5% of GDP

The Productivity Gap（生产率差距）The UK continues to lag behind many other advanced economies in terms of output per hour worked. Productivity growth has been sluggish since the recession ended in 2010.

Some key factors behind the productivity gap:

1.Low rate of investment – many UK firms do not operate at the cutting edge of new technologies

2.Legacy effects of the banking crisis affecting lending to businesses who want to expand

3.Slowing rates of innovation – UK has low level of RD spending (2% of GDP annually)

4.Deep skills shortages in key industries

5.Relatively low levels of market competition – persistence of inefficient monopolies

6.Long tail of under-performing businesses and relative absence of globally-scaled corporations

7.Poor infrastructure e.g. in transport, telecoms and power leading to congestion  higher costs